Could Trump’s diminished popularity in Kentucky affect how this year’s midterm races are run?

By McKenna Horsley | Kentucky Lantern

President Donald Trump may no longer be the sil­ver bul­let in Kentucky elec­tions that Republicans once had as vot­ers face pains from an ongo­ing war in Iran and ris­ing gas and gro­cery prices. 

The president’s grow­ing unpop­u­lar­i­ty in the Bluegrass state may play into the cen­tral Kentucky 6^th District Congressional race in the weeks ahead as GOP and Democrats hope to use their mes­sag­ing to sway vot­ers in a gen­er­al election. 

Ralph Alvarado, the Republican nom­i­nee in the elec­tion, removed men­tions of the pres­i­dent, who had endorsed him in the pri­ma­ry ear­li­er this year, NBC News first report­ed Aug. 25. The changes includ­ed remov­ing a pho­to of Alvarado and Trump from the home­page and refer­ring to him­self as a can­di­date for “inde­pen­dent lead­er­ship” when he once called him­self an “America First fighter.”

As of Friday morn­ing, the media page on Alvarado’s cam­paign site does still include a pho­to of the can­di­date and Trump. 

Months ago, Trump’s endorse­ments did well in Republican pri­maries. In Kentucky, Trump-backed Ed Gallrein defeat­ed incum­bent fire­brand U.S. Rep. Thomas Massie in the 4^th Congressional District by 10 points. Trump’s late-hour endorse­ments of Alvarado and U.S. Rep. Andy Barr in the Senate race led to both can­di­dates sail­ing to com­fort­able leads in May. 

However, polling shows Trump’s approval under­wa­ter in many states, includ­ing states he has won in past elec­tions like Kentucky. A YouGov/Economist pro­jec­tion released Aug. 21 showed the president’s job approval rat­ing neg­a­tive in all but three states. Kentucky was at ‑13 points in the findings. 

Reacting to the NBC sto­ry, the cam­paign for the Democratic nom­i­nee, Zach Dembo, said the move by Alvarado was an attempt “to try and paper over his real record” on the heels of a poll from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee say­ing Alvarado and Dembo are tied. DCCC has added the 6^th District to its “Red to Blue” list, mean­ing it’s a pri­or­i­ty race for fund­ing and support. 

“If this is how Ralph treats his friends, imag­ine how quick­ly he will sell us out when it’s con­ve­nient,” Dembo said in a state­ment. “My oppo­nent has proven he is just anoth­er two-faced politi­cian who will say any­thing to try and get elected.”

Andy Westberry, a spokesman for Alvarado said in a state­ment the cam­paign has “proud­ly tout­ed the endorse­ment” from the pres­i­dent and point­ed to the pho­to of Trump and Alvarado on the site. 

“It’s no sur­prise this Biden alum is des­per­ate­ly try­ing to change the con­ver­sa­tion,” Westberry said, refer­ring to Dembo’s work as an attor­ney in the Justice Department dur­ing the Biden administration.

Morgan Eaves, the exec­u­tive direc­tor of the Kentucky Democratic Party, said Trump’s low­er approval rat­ing is a reac­tion of vot­ers to “the eco­nom­ic real­i­ty that is Trump’s America.” Since Trump began war in Iran, gas prices have gone up, increas­ing oth­er costs like groceries.

“They’re being faced with the fact that, shock­ing­ly, it’s not pop­u­lar to make those deci­sions, and so now you’re kind of see­ing them play cleanup,” Eaves said of Republicans. “But vot­ers aren’t stu­pid; they’ve already brand­ed them­selves. They’ve already made their views clear, and we’re going to con­tin­ue to make sure vot­ers don’t for­get that.”

Former Democratic U.S. Rep. Mike Ward, of Kentucky’s 3^rd Congressional District, said Trump’s approval rat­ings are a “har­bin­ger of the fall elec­tion.” Trump won the 6^th Congressional District by 15 points in 2024, and if this “is a place where you have to down­play Trump, imag­ine the dis­tricts where he only won by five to 10 points,” Ward added. 

Kentucky Republicans are not so eas­i­ly swayed. Adam Hope, the spokesper­son for the Republican Party of Kentucky, said the state is still a place Trump has won by 30-plus points and “he still has a pret­ty sig­nif­i­cant lev­el of sup­port.” Trump won Kentucky’s elec­toral votes in 2016, 2020 and 2024. 

“Polling is polling at the end of the day, but you look at the his­tor­i­cal pres­ence that the pres­i­dent has had in Kentucky, and that’s not going away any­time soon,” Hope said. RPK is con­tin­u­ing to see engaged GOP vot­ers in Kentucky, as the par­ty main­tains a reg­is­tra­tion edge statewide and coun­ties flip from Democrat to Republican. 

Still, Barr and U.S. Rep. James Comer – who have both tied their cam­paigns tight­ly to Trump – feel com­fort­able enough to address Trump’s new effort to bring down beef prices, some­thing opposed by the Kentucky Cattlemen’s Association. On Thursday, Comer, who is the unde­clared but ear­ly favorite GOP can­di­date for gov­er­nor in 2027, said he has not been hap­py with Trump’s tar­iffs and their effects on Kentucky agriculture.

“I’ve expressed my dis­plea­sure with the pres­i­dent and the sec­re­tary of agri­cul­ture, explained why we don’t buy beef from Argentina,” Comer said. “And when you talk about America First, if we’re going to have tar­iffs — we should stick with it one way or the other.”

Barr’s cam­paign web­site has also shift­ed between the pri­ma­ry and gen­er­al elec­tions. According to Wayback Machine archives, the Barr web­site switched a pho­to on the home­page of Barr and Trump to one of Barr and two of his chil­dren in July. The word­ing also changed from “Kentucky Tough. 100% America First. Trump-Endorsed” to “Kentucky Tough, Kentucky First, Always.” As of Saturday, Barr’s home­page does note that the con­gress­man was the first mem­ber of the Kentucky con­gres­sion­al del­e­ga­tion to endorse Trump and that he was the Kentucky chair­man for Trump’s 2024 pri­ma­ry campaign.

Alex Bellizzi, a spokesman for Barr’s cam­paign, said “Kentuckians know that Andy Barr is proud to have President Trump’s endorse­ment” and the con­gress­man “can’t wait to keep fight­ing for Kentucky along­side President Trump as our next U.S. Senator.”

Trey Grayson, a for­mer Republican sec­re­tary of state, said “all good can­di­dates pay atten­tion to the polit­i­cal envi­ron­ment.” The array of vot­ers can­di­dates must reach in a closed pri­ma­ry elec­tion, with just mem­bers of their par­ty, is dif­fer­ent from a gen­er­al elec­tion. As of July, inde­pen­dent and third-par­ty vot­ers make up about 12% of vot­ers in the 6^th District who will also be able to vote for Alvarado or Dembo for the first time. 

Grayson said one thing Republicans do have going for them this elec­tion cycle is that Democrats are still unpop­u­lar with voters. 

With how it is con­fig­ured, the 6^th District is still “a pret­ty good Republican dis­trict,” Grayson said. Anchored by Lexington, one of the state’s urban areas, it’s sur­round­ed by rur­al counties. 

“He’s run before. He’s won before. He’s used to nav­i­gat­ing some of this,” Grayson said of Alvarado. 

Kentucky’s gen­er­al elec­tion is Tuesday, Nov. 3.