Beshear leads Republicans in new poll

A fun­ny thing hap­pened on the way to the Capitol Rotunda on Jan. 6.

Republican Matt Bevin, who had lost his 2019 re-elec­tion bid by the nar­row­est mar­gin of any Kentucky gov­er­nor in 120 years, decid­ed not to go for a rematch against Democratic incum­bent Gov. Andy Beshear.

Instead, Bevin gave a brief speech in which he called for improv­ing the state’s child wel­fare and juve­nile jus­tice sys­tems and elim­i­nat­ing the state income tax, and he warned fel­low Republicans against a divi­sive primary.

Then he turned on his heels and walked out of the state­house, let­ting the fil­ing dead­line for the May 16 pri­ma­ry pass with­out throw­ing his hat into an already crowd­ed ring.

Bevin even had con­cil­ia­to­ry words for his for­mer neme­sis, Beshear, telling the governor’s poten­tial Republican chal­lengers: “He’s not the enemy.”

Beshear, son of for­mer Gov. Steve Beshear of Clark County, is a pop­u­lar Democratic gov­er­nor in a state that has been trend­ing Republican for more than a decade. In fact, accord­ing to a Morning Consult poll pub­lished on Jan. 12, he is the most pop­u­lar Democratic gov­er­nor in the coun­try. Sixty per­cent of Kentuckians, includ­ing 46 per­cent of Republicans, approve of his performance.

But the 2023 cam­paign sea­son is just get­ting under­way, and with only three states elect­ing gov­er­nors this year — Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi — the nation­al Republican Party could make defeat­ing Beshear a pri­or­i­ty ahead of next year’s pres­i­den­tial elec­tion. Some polit­i­cal observers think he faces an uphill bat­tle despite his strong poll numbers.

Still, anoth­er new poll by Mason-Dixon shows Beshear lead­ing four major Republican can­di­dates by sig­nif­i­cant margins.

Attorney General Daniel Cameron, who is endorsed by for­mer President Donald Trump, cur­rent­ly holds the strongest posi­tion against Beshear, trail­ing the Democratic gov­er­nor by nine points in a hypo­thet­i­cal matchup — 49 to 40 per­cent, with 11 per­cent undecided.

Former U.N. Ambassador Kelly Craft, a bil­lion­aire who has already spent more than $1 mil­lion on TV ads, has a dou­ble-dig­it deficit against Beshear, 57 to 32 percent.

Commissioner of Agriculture Ryan Quarles trails Beshear 52 to 35 per­cent, and Auditor of Public Accounts Mike Harmon is 10 points behind, at 53 to 33 percent.

In the poll of 625 reg­is­tered vot­ers, includ­ing 404 like­ly Republican vot­ers, con­duct­ed Jan. 18–23, Cameron has a 26-point lead over Craft, 39 to 13 per­cent, and Quarles and Harmon are in sin­gle dig­its, 8 and 5 per­cent, respec­tive­ly. But 28 per­cent of Republican vot­ers say they are undecided.

The poll by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C., and Jacksonville, Florida, has a mar­gin of error of plus or minus 4 per­cent for statewide polling and plus or minus 5 per­cent for the primary.

Who is running?

Other Republicans who filed to run for gov­er­nor by the Jan. 6 dead­line are Jacob Clark, an engi­neer and min­is­ter; David O. Cooper, a blue-col­lar work­er and min­is­ter; Eric Deters, a lawyer, author, and radio talk show host; Somerset Mayor Alan Keck; Dennis Ray Ormerod; Johnny Ray Rice, who orga­nized and spoke at a Jan. 2021 “patri­ot ral­ly” back­ing Trump; and Robbie C. Smith, a high school math teacher.

Democrats chal­leng­ing Beshear for the nom­i­na­tion are Geoffrey M. Young, who was the Republican nom­i­nee against Congressman Andy Barr last year, and Peppy Martin, a for­mer Republican who ran against Democratic Gov. Paul Patton as the GOP nom­i­nee in 1999.

In the race for sec­re­tary of state, the Republican incum­bent, Michael Adams, is being chal­lenged for re-elec­tion with­in his party’s pri­ma­ry by Stephen Knipper, who was the GOP nom­i­nee for the office in 2014, and Allen Maricle, a for­mer state rep­re­sen­ta­tive. The win­ner will face Democrat Charles “Buddy” Wheatley, a for­mer state House mem­ber, in the Nov. 7 gen­er­al election.

Each par­ty has only one can­di­date for attor­ney gen­er­al, so there won’t be a pri­ma­ry con­test in that race. Russell Coleman, for­mer U.S. attor­ney for the Western District of Kentucky, is the Republican can­di­date, and Pamela Stevenson, a state rep­re­sen­ta­tive from Louisville who was elect­ed to her sec­ond term last year, is the Democrat. They will go head to head in the fall.

State Treasurer Allison Ball is run­ning for state audi­tor and faces Derek Petteys, a busi­ness­man and farmer, in the pri­ma­ry. The win­ner will face Democrat Kimberly Reeder, an attor­ney, in the gen­er­al election.

Vying to suc­ceed Ball as trea­sur­er are three Republicans: O.C. “OJ” Oleka, Ball’s for­mer chief of staff; Garrard County Attorney Mark Metcalf and Andrew Cooperrider, a cof­fee shop own­er who tried to have Beshear impeached over COVID-19 restric­tions and ran unsuc­cess­ful­ly for the state Senate last year. The only Democratic can­di­date is Michael Bowman, a banker who was his party’s nom­i­nee against Ball for trea­sur­er in 2019.

Richard Heath, who chairs the Agriculture Committee in the Kentucky House, and Jonathan Shell, a for­mer state rep­re­sen­ta­tive, are the Republican can­di­dates for com­mis­sion­er of agri­cul­ture. The Democrats are Sierra J. Enlow, an eco­nom­ic devel­op­ment con­sul­tant and farmer, and Mikael Malone, who is from Winchester.

In the 2019 elec­tion for state con­sti­tu­tion­al offices, Beshear was the only Democrat elect­ed. The oth­er offices — attor­ney gen­er­al, audi­tor, sec­re­tary of state, trea­sur­er, and agri­cul­ture com­mis­sion­er — all are held by Republicans.

Party registration

For the first time in the state’s his­to­ry, Republican reg­is­tered vot­ers last sum­mer out­num­bered reg­is­tered Democrats.

This month, accord­ing to the Secretary of State’s Office, vot­ers reg­is­tered as “oth­er” — inde­pen­dents and those list­ed as mem­bers of third par­ties — exceed­ed ten per­cent of the total for the first time and are the fastest-grow­ing part of the electorate.

Kentucky has a closed pri­ma­ry sys­tem, mean­ing inde­pen­dents and mem­bers of oth­er polit­i­cal par­ties can’t vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries.

And Kentucky has the ear­li­est dead­line of any state to change one’s par­ty reg­is­tra­tion for the pri­ma­ry. Those who changed their reg­is­tra­tion after Dec. 31, 2022, and before the May 16 pri­ma­ry won’t be eli­gi­ble to vote for gov­er­nor and oth­er statewide con­sti­tu­tion­al offices until the Nov. 7 gen­er­al election.